Electric Vehicle Penetration in New York

Electric vehicles penetration and electrification has been a subject of much debate and discussion recently. Like many other States, New York has been grappling with setting policy regarding electric vehicles.

• How quickly will electric vehicle adoption ramp up?
• What are the implications for distribution planning?
• Should they offer State rebates to encourage electric vehicle adoption?
• Should utilities be involved in the business of building fast charging stations for electric vehicles?

To assess the current penetration and concentration of electric vehicles, we relied on publicly available vehicle registration data for each of 11.7 million vehicles in New York, including VIN numbers, zip codes, dates of registration and host of other factors. Once we remove boats, motorcycles, and ATVs from the dataset, narrow down to National Grid zip codes, and remove 2018 models (since the data for that year is partial), we have roughly 9.4 million vehicles in National Grid’s New York territory. To supplement the vehicle registration data, we used a VIN decoder API (to isolate the make, model, trim, engine type, model year, and other characteristics for all of the vehicles registered in New York. This allowed us to identify all electric vehicles (EV’s), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and hybrids. The datasets were used to understand EV adoption trends in National Grid’s NY service area.

What Do We Know About Electric Vehicle Penetration So Far?

The most common type of plot for electric vehicle penetration is shown below. It shows total all-electric vehicles registered in National Grid’s NY territory by model year.

At first glance, electric vehicles adoption is accelerating quickly. However, it is important to place electric vehicle penetration in the context of all vehicles in National Grid’s NY territory. The two charts below show the percentage of vehicles in National Grid’s NY territory by model year that are all electric, and the total vehicles by type and model year. As percentage of total 2017 vehicles, electric vehicles are ab0ut 0.25%.

Of the 9.4 million cars in National Grid’s NY territory roughly a million are new each year. As vehicles age, the count of vehicles goes down, either because they are retired or resold outside of National Grid’s NY territory. The pattern below is critical. For electric vehicle penetration to matter, the new car market share of electric vehicles must grow. Second, the penetration of electric vehicles won’t be instantaneous simply because only a relatively small share of individuals purchase and drive new vehicles.

The penetration of green cars in general is instructive. For simplicity, we group hybrids, plug in electric hybrids, and all-electric vehicles into the broader green car category. Like electric vehicles, federal and state rebates were offered for hybrid vehicle adoption. Hybrids are not perfectly analogous – there are differences in performance, drive feel, range, costs, and long run costs – but it’s the most similar well-developed technology. The figure below shows green vehicle adoption by model year. For reference, the data is shown as the percentage of vehicles in each model year. While hybrids have been around nearly 20 years, their penetration appears to have already peaked at roughly 2% of new vehicles purchases. A key question is whether electric vehicles will drive up the overall share of green cars or if we will see a shift from hybrids and PHEV’s vehicle purchases to electric vehicles. It is also instructive to understand the mix of vehicles. While hybrids were dominated by Toyota, the EV and PHEV market is far more open, with a wider mix of car manufacturers vying for market share.

Are Electric Vehicle and Green Car Penetration Deeper in Specific Locations?

Below, we show two heats maps. The first compares the aggregate penetration of electric vehicles and PHEVs by zip code. The second heat map shows the current penetration of green cars overall – including EV’s, PHEVs and hybrids – by zip code.

Penetration of EV + PHEV vehicles (%)

Penetration of Green Vehicles (%)

The chart below compares the penetration of electric vehicles and PHEVs to the penetration of hybrid cars in National Grid’s NY territory. The size of the bubbles indicates the total number of vehicles registered in each zip code. Not surprisingly, adoption of electrified vehicles is closely related to penetration of hybrids. Basically, we can expect higher penetration of electric cars in areas where their predecessors, hybrids, have high penetration.

The two charts below show the areas with the highest penetration of EV+PHEV’s in National Grid’s New York territory. Three digit zip codes typically center on larger cities and towns.

What Conclusions Can We Draw?

The analysis here is not about prognosticating the future of electric vehicles. The data thus far does not reflect the impact of the Tesla Model 3, which may or may not be a truly disruptive technology. What we know so far is the following:

• Electric vehicle penetration as a percentage of all vehicles is small but growing.
• Green vehicles in National Grid seem to be limited to roughly 2% of new vehicle purchases.
• Some locations have higher electric vehicle and PHEV adoption rates.
• Electric vehicles are going where the adoption of green vehicles is higher.
• The data to closely monitor and understand electric vehicle penetration is available, at least in New York.